A single preliminary 6.6-magnitude earthquake off Japan on May 15 has driven the near-certain market consensus for exactly one global event of 6.5 or greater during the May 11–17 window. This outcome aligns with long-term USGS records showing an average of roughly one such quake per week worldwide, produced by routine background tectonic strain release along the Pacific Ring of Fire without accompanying aftershock sequences or regional clusters. No elevated seismicity has been detected in other high-frequency zones such as Indonesia, the Aleutians, or South America. Final USGS catalog verification could still alter the count if magnitude estimates are revised or an unreported event is confirmed, though current monitoring data make those scenarios unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
1 100.0%
0 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$65,787 Vol.
$65,787 Vol.
17 mag 2026
0
No
1
Yes
2
No
3
No
4
No
5
No
>5
No
1 100.0%
0 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$65,787 Vol.
$65,787 Vol.
17 mag 2026
0
$33,721 Vol.
No
1
$7,327 Vol.
Yes
2
$9,068 Vol.
No
3
$8,912 Vol.
No
4
$3,557 Vol.
No
5
$1,570 Vol.
No
>5
$1,633 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.A single preliminary 6.6-magnitude earthquake off Japan on May 15 has driven the near-certain market consensus for exactly one global event of 6.5 or greater during the May 11–17 window. This outcome aligns with long-term USGS records showing an average of roughly one such quake per week worldwide, produced by routine background tectonic strain release along the Pacific Ring of Fire without accompanying aftershock sequences or regional clusters. No elevated seismicity has been detected in other high-frequency zones such as Indonesia, the Aleutians, or South America. Final USGS catalog verification could still alter the count if magnitude estimates are revised or an unreported event is confirmed, though current monitoring data make those scenarios unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ET
Volume
$65,787Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.A single preliminary 6.6-magnitude earthquake off Japan on May 15 has driven the near-certain market consensus for exactly one global event of 6.5 or greater during the May 11–17 window. This outcome aligns with long-term USGS records showing an average of roughly one such quake per week worldwide, produced by routine background tectonic strain release along the Pacific Ring of Fire without accompanying aftershock sequences or regional clusters. No elevated seismicity has been detected in other high-frequency zones such as Indonesia, the Aleutians, or South America. Final USGS catalog verification could still alter the count if magnitude estimates are revised or an unreported event is confirmed, though current monitoring data make those scenarios unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$65,787Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
A single preliminary 6.6-magnitude earthquake off Japan on May 15 has driven the near-certain market consensus for exactly one global event of 6.5 or greater during the May 11–17 window. This outcome aligns with long-term USGS records showing an average of roughly one such quake per week worldwide, produced by routine background tectonic strain release along the Pacific Ring of Fire without accompanying aftershock sequences or regional clusters. No elevated seismicity has been detected in other high-frequency zones such as Indonesia, the Aleutians, or South America. Final USGS catalog verification could still alter the count if magnitude estimates are revised or an unreported event is confirmed, though current monitoring data make those scenarios unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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