Official observations from Environment Canada confirm a daily maximum of 26°C at Toronto Pearson International Airport on August 16, 2026, under partly cloudy conditions with modest humidity and light winds that limited afternoon heating. This aligns closely with pre-event model consensus from the Global Deterministic Prediction System, which consistently projected a high near 25–26°C amid a stable post-frontal air mass. The 100% market-implied probability for 26°C reflects traders’ confidence in these verified station data, which serve as the resolution source. Only an unlikely revision to the official record—such as a station calibration error or boundary dispute over the reporting window—would alter the outcome, given the narrow spread between forecast guidance and final measurements.