Recent polling shows Republican candidates drawing between 7% and 19% support among Black registered voters in generic congressional ballots ahead of the 2026 midterms, reflecting modest continuation of 2024 gains without a presidential candidate on the ballot. Pew Research Center data from early October placed Republican preference at 7% among Black voters, while other surveys such as Rasmussen and Echelon Insights reported figures near 16% and 19%. GOP outreach emphasizes economic policies like job growth and crime reduction, while Democrats focus on turnout efforts and issues including voting rights and redistricting. This produces a tight distribution of market probabilities around the 8–11% range, with outcomes hinging on final turnout differentials and late-cycle messaging in key districts.