Recent polling and party identification data show Republican support among Black voters holding in the low-to-mid teens after gains in the 2024 election, with generic ballot surveys placing GOP preference near 8-19% depending on the sample. Economic pressures, including elevated Black unemployment and inflation concerns tied to tariffs and energy costs, have contributed to declining presidential approval from higher early-2025 levels. Policy developments such as DEI program rollbacks and voting-related court rulings have also factored into sentiment. Subgroup differences persist, with higher support among Black men, evangelicals, and certain immigrant communities, while overall Democratic loyalty remains strong. These patterns keep market probabilities clustered around 8-13% buckets, with separation likely hinging on midterm turnout, economic indicators, and campaign messaging on pocketbook and cultural issues.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato10–11% 30%
8–9% 29%
12–13% 23%
14–15% 9.0%
NUOVO
NUOVO
6 nov 2026
<8%
7%
8–9%
29%
10–11%
30%
12–13%
23%
14–15%
9%
16–17%
6%
18%+
3%
10–11% 30%
8–9% 29%
12–13% 23%
14–15% 9.0%
NUOVO
NUOVO
6 nov 2026
<8%
$80 Vol.
7%
8–9%
$802 Vol.
29%
10–11%
$622 Vol.
30%
12–13%
$369 Vol.
23%
14–15%
$220 Vol.
9%
16–17%
$20 Vol.
6%
18%+
$101 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling and party identification data show Republican support among Black voters holding in the low-to-mid teens after gains in the 2024 election, with generic ballot surveys placing GOP preference near 8-19% depending on the sample. Economic pressures, including elevated Black unemployment and inflation concerns tied to tariffs and energy costs, have contributed to declining presidential approval from higher early-2025 levels. Policy developments such as DEI program rollbacks and voting-related court rulings have also factored into sentiment. Subgroup differences persist, with higher support among Black men, evangelicals, and certain immigrant communities, while overall Democratic loyalty remains strong. These patterns keep market probabilities clustered around 8-13% buckets, with separation likely hinging on midterm turnout, economic indicators, and campaign messaging on pocketbook and cultural issues.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$2,214Data di fine
7 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling and party identification data show Republican support among Black voters holding in the low-to-mid teens after gains in the 2024 election, with generic ballot surveys placing GOP preference near 8-19% depending on the sample. Economic pressures, including elevated Black unemployment and inflation concerns tied to tariffs and energy costs, have contributed to declining presidential approval from higher early-2025 levels. Policy developments such as DEI program rollbacks and voting-related court rulings have also factored into sentiment. Subgroup differences persist, with higher support among Black men, evangelicals, and certain immigrant communities, while overall Democratic loyalty remains strong. These patterns keep market probabilities clustered around 8-13% buckets, with separation likely hinging on midterm turnout, economic indicators, and campaign messaging on pocketbook and cultural issues.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$2,214Data di fine
7 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling and party identification data show Republican support among Black voters holding in the low-to-mid teens after gains in the 2024 election, with generic ballot surveys placing GOP preference near 8-19% depending on the sample. Economic pressures, including elevated Black unemployment and inflation concerns tied to tariffs and energy costs, have contributed to declining presidential approval from higher early-2025 levels. Policy developments such as DEI program rollbacks and voting-related court rulings have also factored into sentiment. Subgroup differences persist, with higher support among Black men, evangelicals, and certain immigrant communities, while overall Democratic loyalty remains strong. These patterns keep market probabilities clustered around 8-13% buckets, with separation likely hinging on midterm turnout, economic indicators, and campaign messaging on pocketbook and cultural issues.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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