Germany’s Q3 2026 GDP growth outlook reflects a balance between upgraded full-year expectations and near-term headwinds. Government and institute forecasts raised 2026 GDP growth to 1.3 percent after stronger-than-expected H1 expansion driven by exports and public spending on defense and infrastructure, yet the Q3 nowcast stands at 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter amid elevated energy prices from the Iran conflict, low Rhine water levels disrupting transport and production, and softening manufacturing data. Official flash estimates arrive October 30. These factors keep market-implied odds closely split between the 1.0–1.2 percent and 1.3 percent-plus bands, underscoring uncertainty over whether temporary drags will offset the broader cyclical rebound.