Frontier AI labs have not announced a binding joint pacing agreement to coordinate limits on capability development in 2026, supporting the market's 74.5% implied probability for "No." Public momentum built in September when Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for embedded third-party evaluators and democratic-country coordination on safety standards, drawing quick endorsements from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and xAI leaders. Those statements triggered antitrust litigation, private working-group talks on a self-regulatory Standards Authority for Frontier AI, and a voluntary White House Accord on Super Intelligence signed by six companies in late September. That accord emphasizes internal controls, independent audits, and board oversight for large language models but remains non-binding with no enforcement or explicit pace restrictions. Ongoing barriers include legal constraints on competitor coordination and a preference for unilateral or self-regulatory steps, though further announcements on evaluator access or standards-body formation could still shift sentiment before year-end.