Louisiana’s 5th congressional district uses a nonpartisan blanket primary on November 3, 2026, where a candidate must exceed 50 percent of the vote for an outright win or the top two advance to a December 12 runoff. The open seat, vacated after incumbent Julia Letlow entered the Senate race, drew nine candidates by the August 7 filing deadline, including multiple Republicans such as state Sen. Stewart Cathey, state Reps. Michael Echols and Gabe Firment, Misti Cordell, and Austin Magee, plus three Democrats. This fragmented field in a Republican-leaning district has produced no polling or endorsement consolidation strong enough to approach a majority. Trader consensus therefore prices an outright first-round winner at just 1.7 percent, consistent with historical outcomes in similarly crowded Louisiana House contests. Late shifts in turnout, a surprise endorsement, or unexpected candidate withdrawal remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
2% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Sì
2% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.Louisiana’s 5th congressional district uses a nonpartisan blanket primary on November 3, 2026, where a candidate must exceed 50 percent of the vote for an outright win or the top two advance to a December 12 runoff. The open seat, vacated after incumbent Julia Letlow entered the Senate race, drew nine candidates by the August 7 filing deadline, including multiple Republicans such as state Sen. Stewart Cathey, state Reps. Michael Echols and Gabe Firment, Misti Cordell, and Austin Magee, plus three Democrats. This fragmented field in a Republican-leaning district has produced no polling or endorsement consolidation strong enough to approach a majority. Trader consensus therefore prices an outright first-round winner at just 1.7 percent, consistent with historical outcomes in similarly crowded Louisiana House contests. Late shifts in turnout, a surprise endorsement, or unexpected candidate withdrawal remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook before election day.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
Mercato aperto: Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,769Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.Louisiana’s 5th congressional district uses a nonpartisan blanket primary on November 3, 2026, where a candidate must exceed 50 percent of the vote for an outright win or the top two advance to a December 12 runoff. The open seat, vacated after incumbent Julia Letlow entered the Senate race, drew nine candidates by the August 7 filing deadline, including multiple Republicans such as state Sen. Stewart Cathey, state Reps. Michael Echols and Gabe Firment, Misti Cordell, and Austin Magee, plus three Democrats. This fragmented field in a Republican-leaning district has produced no polling or endorsement consolidation strong enough to approach a majority. Trader consensus therefore prices an outright first-round winner at just 1.7 percent, consistent with historical outcomes in similarly crowded Louisiana House contests. Late shifts in turnout, a surprise endorsement, or unexpected candidate withdrawal remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook before election day.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
Volume
$1,769Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Louisiana’s 5th congressional district uses a nonpartisan blanket primary on November 3, 2026, where a candidate must exceed 50 percent of the vote for an outright win or the top two advance to a December 12 runoff. The open seat, vacated after incumbent Julia Letlow entered the Senate race, drew nine candidates by the August 7 filing deadline, including multiple Republicans such as state Sen. Stewart Cathey, state Reps. Michael Echols and Gabe Firment, Misti Cordell, and Austin Magee, plus three Democrats. This fragmented field in a Republican-leaning district has produced no polling or endorsement consolidation strong enough to approach a majority. Trader consensus therefore prices an outright first-round winner at just 1.7 percent, consistent with historical outcomes in similarly crowded Louisiana House contests. Late shifts in turnout, a surprise endorsement, or unexpected candidate withdrawal remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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