**Steve Scalise's strong incumbency in Louisiana's 1st congressional district, combined with its consistent Republican lean, drives the elevated trader consensus for an outright first-round winner.** The seat, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters, features limited opposition from Democrat Lauren Jewett, Republican Randall Arrington, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass in the November 3, 2026, majority-vote primary. Scalise captured 66.8% in 2024, and the district's partisan voting index and historical margins support expectations of another majority performance. Candidate filing closed in August with no significant shifts in the competitive landscape since then. In Louisiana's system, a candidate exceeding 50% avoids the December 12 runoff; the 95% implied probability for "Yes" reflects this structural and candidate-specific positioning ahead of the November contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
95% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Sì
95% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.**Steve Scalise's strong incumbency in Louisiana's 1st congressional district, combined with its consistent Republican lean, drives the elevated trader consensus for an outright first-round winner.** The seat, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters, features limited opposition from Democrat Lauren Jewett, Republican Randall Arrington, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass in the November 3, 2026, majority-vote primary. Scalise captured 66.8% in 2024, and the district's partisan voting index and historical margins support expectations of another majority performance. Candidate filing closed in August with no significant shifts in the competitive landscape since then. In Louisiana's system, a candidate exceeding 50% avoids the December 12 runoff; the 95% implied probability for "Yes" reflects this structural and candidate-specific positioning ahead of the November contest.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Mercato aperto: Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,644Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.**Steve Scalise's strong incumbency in Louisiana's 1st congressional district, combined with its consistent Republican lean, drives the elevated trader consensus for an outright first-round winner.** The seat, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters, features limited opposition from Democrat Lauren Jewett, Republican Randall Arrington, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass in the November 3, 2026, majority-vote primary. Scalise captured 66.8% in 2024, and the district's partisan voting index and historical margins support expectations of another majority performance. Candidate filing closed in August with no significant shifts in the competitive landscape since then. In Louisiana's system, a candidate exceeding 50% avoids the December 12 runoff; the 95% implied probability for "Yes" reflects this structural and candidate-specific positioning ahead of the November contest.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Volume
$1,644Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Steve Scalise's strong incumbency in Louisiana's 1st congressional district, combined with its consistent Republican lean, drives the elevated trader consensus for an outright first-round winner.** The seat, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters, features limited opposition from Democrat Lauren Jewett, Republican Randall Arrington, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass in the November 3, 2026, majority-vote primary. Scalise captured 66.8% in 2024, and the district's partisan voting index and historical margins support expectations of another majority performance. Candidate filing closed in August with no significant shifts in the competitive landscape since then. In Louisiana's system, a candidate exceeding 50% avoids the December 12 runoff; the 95% implied probability for "Yes" reflects this structural and candidate-specific positioning ahead of the November contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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