Escalating U.S.-Iran military conflict since February 2026 has driven strikes on Kharg Island—handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports with capacity for seven million barrels per day—and nearby Hormuz Strait outposts including Hengam and Hormuz, elevating risks to energy flows through the chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of global oil and gas trade. Iranian exports have collapsed at times to 135,000–251,000 barrels per day amid naval blockades, though facilities have been repaired and loadings resumed intermittently, with most volumes still directed to China. Oil prices have risen on escalation fears, reflecting trader focus on potential supply disruptions versus the low likelihood of outright territorial loss, as U.S. actions have targeted military sites while sparing core infrastructure. Key near-term catalysts include any new restricted maritime zones or further strikes that could test Iranian control without full seizure.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$136,381 Vol.
30 set 2026
September 30
2%
$136,381 Vol.
September 30
$83,605 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military conflict since February 2026 has driven strikes on Kharg Island—handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports with capacity for seven million barrels per day—and nearby Hormuz Strait outposts including Hengam and Hormuz, elevating risks to energy flows through the chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of global oil and gas trade. Iranian exports have collapsed at times to 135,000–251,000 barrels per day amid naval blockades, though facilities have been repaired and loadings resumed intermittently, with most volumes still directed to China. Oil prices have risen on escalation fears, reflecting trader focus on potential supply disruptions versus the low likelihood of outright territorial loss, as U.S. actions have targeted military sites while sparing core infrastructure. Key near-term catalysts include any new restricted maritime zones or further strikes that could test Iranian control without full seizure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$136,381Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military conflict since February 2026 has driven strikes on Kharg Island—handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports with capacity for seven million barrels per day—and nearby Hormuz Strait outposts including Hengam and Hormuz, elevating risks to energy flows through the chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of global oil and gas trade. Iranian exports have collapsed at times to 135,000–251,000 barrels per day amid naval blockades, though facilities have been repaired and loadings resumed intermittently, with most volumes still directed to China. Oil prices have risen on escalation fears, reflecting trader focus on potential supply disruptions versus the low likelihood of outright territorial loss, as U.S. actions have targeted military sites while sparing core infrastructure. Key near-term catalysts include any new restricted maritime zones or further strikes that could test Iranian control without full seizure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$136,381Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran military conflict since February 2026 has driven strikes on Kharg Island—handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports with capacity for seven million barrels per day—and nearby Hormuz Strait outposts including Hengam and Hormuz, elevating risks to energy flows through the chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of global oil and gas trade. Iranian exports have collapsed at times to 135,000–251,000 barrels per day amid naval blockades, though facilities have been repaired and loadings resumed intermittently, with most volumes still directed to China. Oil prices have risen on escalation fears, reflecting trader focus on potential supply disruptions versus the low likelihood of outright territorial loss, as U.S. actions have targeted military sites while sparing core infrastructure. Key near-term catalysts include any new restricted maritime zones or further strikes that could test Iranian control without full seizure.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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