**Multiple open seats and retiring incumbents in politically competitive states are shaping trader views on the tightest 2026 gubernatorial margin.** Georgia’s open race after Brian Kemp’s term limit, Iowa’s contest following Kim Reynolds’ decision not to run, Wisconsin with Tony Evers stepping aside, and Kansas after Laura Kelly’s term limit top early assessments, alongside Texas where Greg Abbott faces a Democratic challenger in polls showing single-digit leads. These dynamics, combined with each state’s narrow presidential margins and shifting voter coalitions, create potential for razor-thin outcomes. Recent primaries, candidate recruitment, and economic conditions in key states have kept several races fluid, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to states blending open seats, balanced partisan leans, and histories of close statewide results. Late-cycle polling shifts or turnout patterns could further narrow or widen the field.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTexas 14.4%
Iowa 11.5%
Wisconsin 9.8%
Georgia 8.3%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Texas
14%
Iowa
12%
Wisconsin
10%
Georgia
8%
Kansas
8%
Ohio
8%
Nevada
5%
Florida
5%
Michigan
4%
Oregon
4%
Alaska
4%
Arizona
3%
Colorado
2%
New Hampshire
2%
New Mexico
1%
Maine
1%
Vermont
1%
Minnesota
1%
Texas 14.4%
Iowa 11.5%
Wisconsin 9.8%
Georgia 8.3%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Texas
$1,564 Vol.
14%
Iowa
$1,475 Vol.
12%
Wisconsin
$380 Vol.
10%
Georgia
$222 Vol.
8%
Kansas
$1,057 Vol.
8%
Ohio
$389 Vol.
8%
Nevada
$1,986 Vol.
5%
Florida
$193 Vol.
5%
Michigan
$324 Vol.
4%
Oregon
$314 Vol.
4%
Alaska
$201 Vol.
4%
Arizona
$259 Vol.
3%
Colorado
$238 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$250 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$189 Vol.
1%
Maine
$350 Vol.
1%
Vermont
$171 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$209 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Multiple open seats and retiring incumbents in politically competitive states are shaping trader views on the tightest 2026 gubernatorial margin.** Georgia’s open race after Brian Kemp’s term limit, Iowa’s contest following Kim Reynolds’ decision not to run, Wisconsin with Tony Evers stepping aside, and Kansas after Laura Kelly’s term limit top early assessments, alongside Texas where Greg Abbott faces a Democratic challenger in polls showing single-digit leads. These dynamics, combined with each state’s narrow presidential margins and shifting voter coalitions, create potential for razor-thin outcomes. Recent primaries, candidate recruitment, and economic conditions in key states have kept several races fluid, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to states blending open seats, balanced partisan leans, and histories of close statewide results. Late-cycle polling shifts or turnout patterns could further narrow or widen the field.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$9,769Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Multiple open seats and retiring incumbents in politically competitive states are shaping trader views on the tightest 2026 gubernatorial margin.** Georgia’s open race after Brian Kemp’s term limit, Iowa’s contest following Kim Reynolds’ decision not to run, Wisconsin with Tony Evers stepping aside, and Kansas after Laura Kelly’s term limit top early assessments, alongside Texas where Greg Abbott faces a Democratic challenger in polls showing single-digit leads. These dynamics, combined with each state’s narrow presidential margins and shifting voter coalitions, create potential for razor-thin outcomes. Recent primaries, candidate recruitment, and economic conditions in key states have kept several races fluid, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to states blending open seats, balanced partisan leans, and histories of close statewide results. Late-cycle polling shifts or turnout patterns could further narrow or widen the field.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,769Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Multiple open seats and retiring incumbents in politically competitive states are shaping trader views on the tightest 2026 gubernatorial margin.** Georgia’s open race after Brian Kemp’s term limit, Iowa’s contest following Kim Reynolds’ decision not to run, Wisconsin with Tony Evers stepping aside, and Kansas after Laura Kelly’s term limit top early assessments, alongside Texas where Greg Abbott faces a Democratic challenger in polls showing single-digit leads. These dynamics, combined with each state’s narrow presidential margins and shifting voter coalitions, create potential for razor-thin outcomes. Recent primaries, candidate recruitment, and economic conditions in key states have kept several races fluid, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to states blending open seats, balanced partisan leans, and histories of close statewide results. Late-cycle polling shifts or turnout patterns could further narrow or widen the field.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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