Traders assign an 81.5% implied probability to "No" because China has conducted routine naval deployments, coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, and joint exercises with Russia in 2026 without triggering major ballistic missile launches over the past several months. The PLA's most recent notable activity—a July submarine-launched test into the South Pacific and June DF-17 hypersonic footage—remains consistent with ongoing capability demonstrations rather than escalatory strikes. Cross-strait tensions tied to U.S. and allied exercises have prompted increased air and maritime activity, yet Beijing has avoided the live-fire ballistic salvos seen in prior Taiwan Strait crises. Absent new diplomatic breakdowns or large-scale exercises before year-end, the current pattern of calibrated signaling supports the market's assessment that a qualifying launch remains unlikely.