**Recent inflation data and the Banco de la República’s September 30 decision to raise the policy rate 25 basis points to 12.25% form the main drivers behind current Polymarket pricing for the October 30 meeting.** August headline inflation rose to 6.2% year-over-year, with core measures at their highest levels in a year and services inflation at 7.2%, while analyst expectations for December 2026 reached 6.8%. The divided board vote—four members for the hike, two for a hold, and one for 50 basis points—signaled a hawkish shift amid renewed price pressures and El Niño risks. At the same time, softer July activity readings, rising urban unemployment, and the lagged effects of the restrictive stance support the market-implied odds favoring no change at 65.5%, with a 30.5% chance of another 25 basis point increase. Traders will focus on incoming inflation prints and labor data before the October 24–30 silence period.