**Renan Santos, the Missão party candidate and former MBL leader positioning himself as a pragmatic right-wing alternative critical of both Lula and Bolsonarism, finished the October 4, 2026 first round in fourth place with approximately 2.25% of valid votes (roughly 2.66–2.67 million ballots).** This placed him behind Lula (PT, ~44.9%), Flávio Bolsonaro (PL, ~47.2%), and Augusto Cury (Avante, ~2.9%). Pre-election polls had shown him in the 3–4.5% range, particularly among younger voters, yet late consolidation around the two leading contenders and limited congressional representation for his new party constrained broader support. The near-unanimous trader consensus on the 2–4% band reflects the confirmed partial and near-complete tallies, with only marginal room for final official adjustments or disputes to shift the outcome outside that interval.