Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia first-round polling, with recent surveys from Veritá and Real Time Big Data placing him at 57-58% against Lula’s 25%, consistent with the state’s strong conservative alignment and 2022 voting patterns favoring the Liberal Party and Jair Bolsonaro’s base. Traders have priced this dominance at 98.1% implied probability, reflecting the limited fragmentation among other candidates and the absence of major late shifts in the northern state’s electorate ahead of the October 4 vote. A substantial polling margin leaves little room for reversal, though unusually high abstention or an unforeseen consolidation behind a secondary contender could theoretically narrow the gap before ballots close.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFlavio Bolsonaro 98.0%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Lula <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$16,493 Vol.
$16,493 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
98%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Lula
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Samara
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Veterinario Wilson Grassi
1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 98.0%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Lula <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$16,493 Vol.
$16,493 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$9,929 Vol.
98%
Edmilson Costa
$490 Vol.
1%
Lula
$663 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$490 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$560 Vol.
1%
Samara
$580 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$621 Vol.
1%
Veterinario Wilson Grassi
$539 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$480 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$530 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$550 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$535 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$525 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia first-round polling, with recent surveys from Veritá and Real Time Big Data placing him at 57-58% against Lula’s 25%, consistent with the state’s strong conservative alignment and 2022 voting patterns favoring the Liberal Party and Jair Bolsonaro’s base. Traders have priced this dominance at 98.1% implied probability, reflecting the limited fragmentation among other candidates and the absence of major late shifts in the northern state’s electorate ahead of the October 4 vote. A substantial polling margin leaves little room for reversal, though unusually high abstention or an unforeseen consolidation behind a secondary contender could theoretically narrow the gap before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$16,493Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia first-round polling, with recent surveys from Veritá and Real Time Big Data placing him at 57-58% against Lula’s 25%, consistent with the state’s strong conservative alignment and 2022 voting patterns favoring the Liberal Party and Jair Bolsonaro’s base. Traders have priced this dominance at 98.1% implied probability, reflecting the limited fragmentation among other candidates and the absence of major late shifts in the northern state’s electorate ahead of the October 4 vote. A substantial polling margin leaves little room for reversal, though unusually high abstention or an unforeseen consolidation behind a secondary contender could theoretically narrow the gap before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$16,493Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia first-round polling, with recent surveys from Veritá and Real Time Big Data placing him at 57-58% against Lula’s 25%, consistent with the state’s strong conservative alignment and 2022 voting patterns favoring the Liberal Party and Jair Bolsonaro’s base. Traders have priced this dominance at 98.1% implied probability, reflecting the limited fragmentation among other candidates and the absence of major late shifts in the northern state’s electorate ahead of the October 4 vote. A substantial polling margin leaves little room for reversal, though unusually high abstention or an unforeseen consolidation behind a secondary contender could theoretically narrow the gap before ballots close.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
78%
Sì
Flavio Bolsonaro otterrà il maggior numero di voti alle prossime elezioni presidenziali in Brasile dal Paraná?
97%
Sì
Flavio Bolsonaro otterrà il maggior numero di voti nella prossima elezione presidenziale in Brasile a Roraima?
98%
Sì
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