Lula maintains a commanding position in Pernambuco for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting his long-standing dominance in the Northeast electoral base. Recent state-level polling shows him well above 50 percent, far ahead of potential challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro. This edge stems from sustained regional approval of his administration, established party networks, and limited traction for national opposition figures in local surveys. Traders price in low volatility for this outcome given historical voting patterns and the absence of major disruptions in the state contest. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include sharp deterioration in national economic indicators, a late surge by a regionally resonant alternative candidate, or unforeseen developments affecting Lula’s candidacy before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPrimo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Pernambuco
Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Pernambuco
Lula 97.0%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.5%
Zema <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
Lula
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
2%
Zema
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Scrittore Augusto Cury
<1%
Lula 97.0%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.5%
Zema <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
Lula
$6,097 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$392 Vol.
2%
Zema
$291 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$272 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$272 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$318 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$329 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$406 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$329 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$286 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$285 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$329 Vol.
<1%
Scrittore Augusto Cury
$329 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Pernambuco for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting his long-standing dominance in the Northeast electoral base. Recent state-level polling shows him well above 50 percent, far ahead of potential challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro. This edge stems from sustained regional approval of his administration, established party networks, and limited traction for national opposition figures in local surveys. Traders price in low volatility for this outcome given historical voting patterns and the absence of major disruptions in the state contest. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include sharp deterioration in national economic indicators, a late surge by a regionally resonant alternative candidate, or unforeseen developments affecting Lula’s candidacy before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
Volume
$9,934Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Pernambuco for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting his long-standing dominance in the Northeast electoral base. Recent state-level polling shows him well above 50 percent, far ahead of potential challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro. This edge stems from sustained regional approval of his administration, established party networks, and limited traction for national opposition figures in local surveys. Traders price in low volatility for this outcome given historical voting patterns and the absence of major disruptions in the state contest. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include sharp deterioration in national economic indicators, a late surge by a regionally resonant alternative candidate, or unforeseen developments affecting Lula’s candidacy before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,934Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding position in Pernambuco for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting his long-standing dominance in the Northeast electoral base. Recent state-level polling shows him well above 50 percent, far ahead of potential challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro. This edge stems from sustained regional approval of his administration, established party networks, and limited traction for national opposition figures in local surveys. Traders price in low volatility for this outcome given historical voting patterns and the absence of major disruptions in the state contest. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include sharp deterioration in national economic indicators, a late surge by a regionally resonant alternative candidate, or unforeseen developments affecting Lula’s candidacy before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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