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icon for Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Paraná
Elezioni·Elezioni Principali

Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Paraná

icon for Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Paraná
Elezioni·Elezioni Principali

Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Paraná

Flavio Bolsonaro 95%

Lula 3.2%

Renan Santos 1.2%

Rui Costa Pimenta <1%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Flavio Bolsonaro 95%

Lula 3.2%

Renan Santos 1.2%

Rui Costa Pimenta <1%

Polymarket
NUOVO
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$2,997 Vol.

95%

icon for Lula

Lula

$330 Vol.

3%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$336 Vol.

1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$467 Vol.

1%

icon for Scrittore Augusto Cury

Scrittore Augusto Cury

$526 Vol.

1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$517 Vol.

1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$516 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$544 Vol.

1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$434 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$413 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$521 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$533 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$511 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Paraná first-round polling, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest/Genial showing him at 41-44% against Lula's 23-30% and fragmented support for other names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. Traders price his probability of finishing first at 94.5%, reflecting the state's consistent conservative leanings on agriculture, security, and economic issues, plus alignment with Liberal Party networks. Lula's higher rejection rates in the region further widen the gap. Potential shifts could arise from major alliance changes, unexpected national developments before the October 4 vote, or turnout variations among undecided voters, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the frontrunner.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,644
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Paraná first-round polling, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest/Genial showing him at 41-44% against Lula's 23-30% and fragmented support for other names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. Traders price his probability of finishing first at 94.5%, reflecting the state's consistent conservative leanings on agriculture, security, and economic issues, plus alignment with Liberal Party networks. Lula's higher rejection rates in the region further widen the gap. Potential shifts could arise from major alliance changes, unexpected national developments before the October 4 vote, or turnout variations among undecided voters, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the frontrunner.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,644
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...

Correlati

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro otterrà il maggior numero di voti nelle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane a San Paolo?

Flavio Bolsonaro otterrà il maggior numero di voti nelle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane a San Paolo?

88%
Sì
icon for Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?

Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?

90%
Sì
icon for Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti alle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane in Paraíba?

Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti alle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane in Paraíba?

97%
Sì

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Domande frequenti

"Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Paraná" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 13 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Flavio Bolsonaro" a 95%, seguito da "Lula" a 3%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 95¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 95% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Paraná" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Aug 17, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Paraná", esplora i 13 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Paraná" è "Flavio Bolsonaro" a 95%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 95% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Lula" a 3%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Paraná" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.