Lula maintains a commanding lead in Paraíba polling for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys from AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data showing him at 50-55% support against distant challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro around 21-28%. Traders reflect this positioning through elevated implied probabilities, drawing on the state's Northeast voting patterns, Lula's incumbency, and government approval ratings near 55%. Lower rejection levels for the PT candidate compared with rivals further reinforce the gap. Potential shifts could stem from late-campaign momentum for names like Augusto Cury or changes in turnout among swing voters, though current data indicate limited scope for such reversals before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLula 97.1%
Scrittore Augusto Cury 1.0%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$38,532 Vol.
$38,532 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Lula
97%
Scrittore Augusto Cury
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinario Wilson Grassi
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Zema
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Lula 97.1%
Scrittore Augusto Cury 1.0%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$38,532 Vol.
$38,532 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Lula
$31,678 Vol.
97%
Scrittore Augusto Cury
$791 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$544 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$544 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$544 Vol.
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$565 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$544 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$596 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$544 Vol.
<1%
Veterinario Wilson Grassi
$544 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$544 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$549 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$544 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Paraíba polling for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys from AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data showing him at 50-55% support against distant challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro around 21-28%. Traders reflect this positioning through elevated implied probabilities, drawing on the state's Northeast voting patterns, Lula's incumbency, and government approval ratings near 55%. Lower rejection levels for the PT candidate compared with rivals further reinforce the gap. Potential shifts could stem from late-campaign momentum for names like Augusto Cury or changes in turnout among swing voters, though current data indicate limited scope for such reversals before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$38,532Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Paraíba polling for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys from AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data showing him at 50-55% support against distant challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro around 21-28%. Traders reflect this positioning through elevated implied probabilities, drawing on the state's Northeast voting patterns, Lula's incumbency, and government approval ratings near 55%. Lower rejection levels for the PT candidate compared with rivals further reinforce the gap. Potential shifts could stem from late-campaign momentum for names like Augusto Cury or changes in turnout among swing voters, though current data indicate limited scope for such reversals before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$38,532Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Paraíba polling for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys from AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data showing him at 50-55% support against distant challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro around 21-28%. Traders reflect this positioning through elevated implied probabilities, drawing on the state's Northeast voting patterns, Lula's incumbency, and government approval ratings near 55%. Lower rejection levels for the PT candidate compared with rivals further reinforce the gap. Potential shifts could stem from late-campaign momentum for names like Augusto Cury or changes in turnout among swing voters, though current data indicate limited scope for such reversals before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti nelle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane in Pará?
96%
Sì
Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
88%
Sì
Flavio Bolsonaro otterrà il maggior numero di voti nelle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane a San Paolo?
88%
Sì
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