Lula maintains a commanding position in Pará first-round polling, consistently leading Flávio Bolsonaro by margins of seven to twelve points in surveys from July through early September 2026, with the incumbent registering 37-49% support against the PL senator’s 28-38%. This edge stems from sustained voter preference in the northern state, where Lula’s PT base and government approval near 50% have held steady amid the broader national campaign. Other candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, register in low single digits. Traders price the outcome at 95.5% for Lula because these trends have shown little movement, though late shifts among undecided voters (often 11-18%), turnout variations, or unexpected campaign developments before the October 4 vote could narrow the gap.