Recent polls in Minas Gerais show a tightening contest for first place in the October 4 first round, with President Lula holding narrow leads or technical ties against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in state surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest. Bolsonaro has gained ground nationally and locally amid reports of Supreme Court controversies weighing on the incumbent, while minor candidates like Augusto Cury and Romeu Zema draw single-digit support that fragments the field. Minas Gerais functions as a traditional bellwether with diverse voter blocs, and the absence of a dominant frontrunner keeps implied probabilities clustered near even. Scheduled debates and final campaign weeks could shift momentum before ballots close.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFlavio Bolsonaro 50.4%
Lula 49%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$25,657 Vol.
$25,657 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
50%
Lula
49%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 50.4%
Lula 49%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$25,657 Vol.
$25,657 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$6,803 Vol.
50%
Lula
$10,316 Vol.
49%
Pablo Marçal
$1,452 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$844 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$525 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$485 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$484 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$608 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$473 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$491 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$649 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$576 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$1,951 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls in Minas Gerais show a tightening contest for first place in the October 4 first round, with President Lula holding narrow leads or technical ties against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in state surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest. Bolsonaro has gained ground nationally and locally amid reports of Supreme Court controversies weighing on the incumbent, while minor candidates like Augusto Cury and Romeu Zema draw single-digit support that fragments the field. Minas Gerais functions as a traditional bellwether with diverse voter blocs, and the absence of a dominant frontrunner keeps implied probabilities clustered near even. Scheduled debates and final campaign weeks could shift momentum before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$25,657Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls in Minas Gerais show a tightening contest for first place in the October 4 first round, with President Lula holding narrow leads or technical ties against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in state surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest. Bolsonaro has gained ground nationally and locally amid reports of Supreme Court controversies weighing on the incumbent, while minor candidates like Augusto Cury and Romeu Zema draw single-digit support that fragments the field. Minas Gerais functions as a traditional bellwether with diverse voter blocs, and the absence of a dominant frontrunner keeps implied probabilities clustered near even. Scheduled debates and final campaign weeks could shift momentum before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$25,657Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls in Minas Gerais show a tightening contest for first place in the October 4 first round, with President Lula holding narrow leads or technical ties against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in state surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest. Bolsonaro has gained ground nationally and locally amid reports of Supreme Court controversies weighing on the incumbent, while minor candidates like Augusto Cury and Romeu Zema draw single-digit support that fragments the field. Minas Gerais functions as a traditional bellwether with diverse voter blocs, and the absence of a dominant frontrunner keeps implied probabilities clustered near even. Scheduled debates and final campaign weeks could shift momentum before ballots close.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
80%
Sì
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?
87%
Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti alle prossime elezioni presidenziali in Brasile da Tocantins?
68%
Sì
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