Lula secured first place in Amazonas in the October 4 first round, reflecting consistent polling leads throughout the campaign and strong backing across the state's interior municipalities. Pre-election surveys from institutes such as Quaest and Direto ao Ponto showed the PT incumbent maintaining a clear edge over Flávio Bolsonaro, driven by voter priorities on regional development, environmental policies, and federal transfers that resonate in Amazonian communities. Final tallies confirmed Lula ahead at roughly 48 percent to 45 percent, winning 54 of 62 municipalities despite trailing in Manaus. Trader consensus at 100 percent for Lula aligns with these verified results, while low probabilities for other listed candidates mirror their minimal statewide support. A successful recount or legal challenge to the certified totals could theoretically alter the outcome, though no such developments have emerged.