Persistent above-target inflation around 6.3–7.1% year-over-year, elevated household expectations near 14.2%, and pro-inflationary pressures from fuel prices, utility tariff hikes, robust lending, and fiscal impulse have led the Bank of Russia to pause its easing cycle after ten prior cuts, holding the key rate at 14% in September. Analyst surveys and the central bank’s own poll now project the average rate remaining near 14.6% through year-end, with inflation unlikely to reach the 4% target before 2027 or later. These factors position a December hold as the leading outcome at 60%, while a modest 25 basis point cut retains support at 29% if incoming data shows clearer disinflation before the final 2026 meeting. Larger moves in either direction remain low-probability given the cautious policy stance.