Recent Canadian CPI data holding at 3.0% year-over-year in August amid elevated energy prices has kept inflation risks in focus, supporting the Bank of Canada’s cautious September tone and sustaining market-implied odds near even for a December hold versus a 25 basis point hike from the current 2.25% overnight rate. Softer September labor market readings and trade-related growth uncertainty have tempered expectations for near-term tightening, while analysts highlight the BoC’s emphasis on preventing oil-driven pressures from feeding into core measures. The October 28 decision and upcoming September CPI release on October 19 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the closely balanced probabilities ahead of the December meeting.