Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers’ Party holds the leading trader consensus in the Bahia gubernatorial race due to his structural advantages as sitting governor, including approval ratings in the mid-to-high 50s and perceived delivery on education and infrastructure priorities. The contest is a rematch with ACM Neto of Brazil Union, whom Rodrigues defeated in the 2022 runoff; Neto’s earlier polling edge has narrowed following his alignment with the national right-wing bloc after his party’s 2025 break with the Lula administration. Recent May polling, including a Quaest survey showing a technical tie in first-round scenarios, underscores the competitive dynamics, while the October 4, 2026, first-round date and potential runoff remain the key resolution triggers. Lower-probability candidates reflect minimal organized support or ballot viability at this stage.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJerônimo Rodrigues 67%
ACM Neto 34%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$25,799 Vol.
$25,799 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
67%
ACM Neto
34%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 67%
ACM Neto 34%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$25,799 Vol.
$25,799 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$8,717 Vol.
67%
ACM Neto
$6,669 Vol.
34%
José Carlos Aleluia
$3,217 Vol.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$2,060 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$1,628 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,722 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,786 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers’ Party holds the leading trader consensus in the Bahia gubernatorial race due to his structural advantages as sitting governor, including approval ratings in the mid-to-high 50s and perceived delivery on education and infrastructure priorities. The contest is a rematch with ACM Neto of Brazil Union, whom Rodrigues defeated in the 2022 runoff; Neto’s earlier polling edge has narrowed following his alignment with the national right-wing bloc after his party’s 2025 break with the Lula administration. Recent May polling, including a Quaest survey showing a technical tie in first-round scenarios, underscores the competitive dynamics, while the October 4, 2026, first-round date and potential runoff remain the key resolution triggers. Lower-probability candidates reflect minimal organized support or ballot viability at this stage.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$25,799Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers’ Party holds the leading trader consensus in the Bahia gubernatorial race due to his structural advantages as sitting governor, including approval ratings in the mid-to-high 50s and perceived delivery on education and infrastructure priorities. The contest is a rematch with ACM Neto of Brazil Union, whom Rodrigues defeated in the 2022 runoff; Neto’s earlier polling edge has narrowed following his alignment with the national right-wing bloc after his party’s 2025 break with the Lula administration. Recent May polling, including a Quaest survey showing a technical tie in first-round scenarios, underscores the competitive dynamics, while the October 4, 2026, first-round date and potential runoff remain the key resolution triggers. Lower-probability candidates reflect minimal organized support or ballot viability at this stage.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$25,799Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers’ Party holds the leading trader consensus in the Bahia gubernatorial race due to his structural advantages as sitting governor, including approval ratings in the mid-to-high 50s and perceived delivery on education and infrastructure priorities. The contest is a rematch with ACM Neto of Brazil Union, whom Rodrigues defeated in the 2022 runoff; Neto’s earlier polling edge has narrowed following his alignment with the national right-wing bloc after his party’s 2025 break with the Lula administration. Recent May polling, including a Quaest survey showing a technical tie in first-round scenarios, underscores the competitive dynamics, while the October 4, 2026, first-round date and potential runoff remain the key resolution triggers. Lower-probability candidates reflect minimal organized support or ballot viability at this stage.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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