Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) commands a 57% implied probability on Polymarket as Bahia governor race winner, reflecting trader confidence in his incumbency edge and the state's long PT dominance since 2007 despite a tightening contest. Recent late-April polls highlight volatility: Quaest/Genial (April 23-27) shows a technical tie with ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 41% to Rodrigues' 38% in a second-round scenario and similar first-round margins, while Veritá (same period) gives Neto a 56-42 valid-vote lead. Rodrigues benefits from 56% government approval and firm voter loyalty, offsetting his 42% rejection versus Neto's 32%; Neto gains from broad alliances including PL and Novo. The October 4 two-round election remains fluid with further polling ahead.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJerônimo Rodrigues 56%
ACM Neto 36%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
57%
ACM Neto
36%
José Carlos Aleluia
1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 56%
ACM Neto 36%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$1,934 Vol.
57%
ACM Neto
$1,639 Vol.
36%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,448 Vol.
1%
Kleber Rosa
$875 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$560 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$554 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$718 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) commands a 57% implied probability on Polymarket as Bahia governor race winner, reflecting trader confidence in his incumbency edge and the state's long PT dominance since 2007 despite a tightening contest. Recent late-April polls highlight volatility: Quaest/Genial (April 23-27) shows a technical tie with ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 41% to Rodrigues' 38% in a second-round scenario and similar first-round margins, while Veritá (same period) gives Neto a 56-42 valid-vote lead. Rodrigues benefits from 56% government approval and firm voter loyalty, offsetting his 42% rejection versus Neto's 32%; Neto gains from broad alliances including PL and Novo. The October 4 two-round election remains fluid with further polling ahead.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$7,728Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) commands a 57% implied probability on Polymarket as Bahia governor race winner, reflecting trader confidence in his incumbency edge and the state's long PT dominance since 2007 despite a tightening contest. Recent late-April polls highlight volatility: Quaest/Genial (April 23-27) shows a technical tie with ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 41% to Rodrigues' 38% in a second-round scenario and similar first-round margins, while Veritá (same period) gives Neto a 56-42 valid-vote lead. Rodrigues benefits from 56% government approval and firm voter loyalty, offsetting his 42% rejection versus Neto's 32%; Neto gains from broad alliances including PL and Novo. The October 4 two-round election remains fluid with further polling ahead.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$7,728Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) commands a 57% implied probability on Polymarket as Bahia governor race winner, reflecting trader confidence in his incumbency edge and the state's long PT dominance since 2007 despite a tightening contest. Recent late-April polls highlight volatility: Quaest/Genial (April 23-27) shows a technical tie with ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 41% to Rodrigues' 38% in a second-round scenario and similar first-round margins, while Veritá (same period) gives Neto a 56-42 valid-vote lead. Rodrigues benefits from 56% government approval and firm voter loyalty, offsetting his 42% rejection versus Neto's 32%; Neto gains from broad alliances including PL and Novo. The October 4 two-round election remains fluid with further polling ahead.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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