The open seat in Arizona’s 1st congressional district, vacated after Republican incumbent David Schweikert launched a gubernatorial bid, has created a competitive 2026 general-election environment rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters. With the primary scheduled for July 21 and the general election on November 3, trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Democrats the higher probability, consistent with the district’s narrow partisan lean and the crowded Democratic primary field featuring candidates such as Amish Shah and Marlene Galán-Woods. Republican primary polling has shown Joseph Chaplik and Jay Feely as early frontrunners, yet the absence of an incumbent and national midterm dynamics continue to shape assessments of the general-election matchup.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAZ-01 House Election Winner
AZ-01 House Election Winner
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 nov 2026
Democratic Party
69%
Republican Party
28%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$175 Vol.
69%
Republican Party
$316 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Arizona’s 1st congressional district, vacated after Republican incumbent David Schweikert launched a gubernatorial bid, has created a competitive 2026 general-election environment rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters. With the primary scheduled for July 21 and the general election on November 3, trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Democrats the higher probability, consistent with the district’s narrow partisan lean and the crowded Democratic primary field featuring candidates such as Amish Shah and Marlene Galán-Woods. Republican primary polling has shown Joseph Chaplik and Jay Feely as early frontrunners, yet the absence of an incumbent and national midterm dynamics continue to shape assessments of the general-election matchup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET
Volume
$490Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Arizona’s 1st congressional district, vacated after Republican incumbent David Schweikert launched a gubernatorial bid, has created a competitive 2026 general-election environment rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters. With the primary scheduled for July 21 and the general election on November 3, trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Democrats the higher probability, consistent with the district’s narrow partisan lean and the crowded Democratic primary field featuring candidates such as Amish Shah and Marlene Galán-Woods. Republican primary polling has shown Joseph Chaplik and Jay Feely as early frontrunners, yet the absence of an incumbent and national midterm dynamics continue to shape assessments of the general-election matchup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$490Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in Arizona’s 1st congressional district, vacated after Republican incumbent David Schweikert launched a gubernatorial bid, has created a competitive 2026 general-election environment rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters. With the primary scheduled for July 21 and the general election on November 3, trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Democrats the higher probability, consistent with the district’s narrow partisan lean and the crowded Democratic primary field featuring candidates such as Amish Shah and Marlene Galán-Woods. Republican primary polling has shown Joseph Chaplik and Jay Feely as early frontrunners, yet the absence of an incumbent and national midterm dynamics continue to shape assessments of the general-election matchup.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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