Election results from November 3 show Democrat Amish Shah leading Republican Jay Feely by roughly seven points in Arizona’s open 1st Congressional District, with more than 85 percent of ballots counted and the margin holding steady as additional votes are tallied. The seat became vacant after incumbent David Schweikert pursued the governorship, turning the northeast Valley district—carried narrowly by Trump in 2024—into a top target for both parties. Late polling had indicated a narrow Shah advantage, and the actual vote totals have aligned with those surveys. Traders have priced in an extremely high probability for Shah because remaining ballots are unlikely to reverse the outcome, though final certification or an unexpected recount could still produce minor adjustments before the market resolves.