**Houthi enforcement of a Saudi shipping embargo since late July 2026, combined with September attacks on vessels and territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast including the seizure of Mokha and Perim Island, has sustained depressed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** AIS and satellite data from Kpler and IMF PortWatch show seven-day averages near 25 vessels per day in mid-to-late September, down from the low-30s earlier in 2026 and well below pre-crisis baselines near 70, with tanker flows hit hardest. This real-time contraction underpins the market’s 92.4% implied probability on the 25-29 bracket as of early October. A swift de-escalation, verified counteroffensive restoring access, or material upward revision in dark-ship estimates could still shift the final IMF PortWatch seven-day average at month-end into adjacent ranges.