Katie Hobbs holds an 87.5% implied probability of winning Maricopa County in the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election, while Andy Biggs sits at 10.5%. Recent polling averages show Hobbs ahead statewide by 6–9 points among likely voters, with stronger margins in the state's largest county due to its urban and suburban demographics. Biggs secured the Republican nomination with over 70% in the July primary, yet general-election surveys from August consistently place Hobbs in the lead, reflecting her incumbency advantage and crossover support from independents. Forecasters rate the overall race Lean Democratic, consistent with trader consensus on county-level outcomes. Early voting begins October 7 ahead of the November 3 election, with no major shifts reported in the past month.