**Trader consensus at 97.5% against reopening Alcatraz as a federal prison in 2026 stems from persistent logistical, financial, and procedural barriers that have stalled the 2025 proposal.** President Trump directed the Bureau of Prisons and other agencies in May 2025 to pursue reopening and expansion for high-security inmates, followed by a April 2026 budget request of $152 million for initial 2027 fiscal year costs. However, the island remains under National Park Service management as a major tourist site drawing over 1.4 million visitors annually, with ongoing dock repairs scheduled through November 2026. Alcatraz lacks modern water, sewage, and power infrastructure, requires extensive environmental and regulatory approvals, and faces local opposition plus high historical operating costs. No construction, inmate transfers, or operational milestones have advanced by early October 2026, leaving insufficient time for completion within the calendar year. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include rapid congressional funding passage, emergency executive actions bypassing standard processes, or accelerated engineering assessments, though these face significant institutional and practical hurdles.