Incumbent Republican Nick Begich III holds a clear lead in the Alaska at-large House race under ranked-choice voting, with recent polls showing him ahead of independent Bill Hill by roughly eight points in head-to-head matchups. Begich captured 44.6% in the August primary compared with Hill’s 32.5%, benefiting from unified Republican support and the state’s consistent Republican presidential lean. Multiple Democratic candidates withdrew before the primary to consolidate opposition behind Hill, yet polling averages still place Begich well ahead after RCV reallocations. Minor candidates Eric Hafner and Libertarian Jim McDermott draw negligible support. With the November 3 general election weeks away, traders price the Republican outcome highest, reflecting the incumbent’s polling edge and structural advantages in a low-turnout midterm environment.