Mali leads the Group K winner market at 64% implied probability, driven by their stronger FIFA ranking, deeper squad experience in AFCON competitions, and consistent results against regional opponents. Both Mali and Rwanda sit atop the standings with six points each after Matchday 2 victories—Mali defeated Cape Verde 3-1 and Liberia 1-0, while Rwanda edged Liberia 3-1 and Cape Verde 2-1. Their November clash will shape the race. Rwanda holds 22.9% odds on the back of early momentum and defensive organization, though Mali's historical edge in head-to-head encounters and greater depth favor them over the longer six-match schedule. Cape Verde (11.5%) and Liberia (3.9%) trail with zero points and face steep recovery paths in remaining fixtures.