**Tunisia leads Group H at 58% implied probability amid a tightly contested AFCON 2027 qualifying race against Uganda, Botswana, and Libya.** After two matchdays, results show four draws and one Uganda win, leaving Uganda atop the table on four points as co-host (already qualified for the finals) while the other three sides sit on two or one point each. Tunisia’s higher FIFA ranking and 22 prior AFCON appearances provide a pedigree edge, yet the Carthage Eagles remain winless after drawing with Uganda and Botswana. Botswana’s early points haul and Libya’s competitive showings have kept the non-host battle open, with November and March fixtures still to come. This balance of form, limited separation in results, and the single additional qualification spot from the group sustains the bunched trader pricing.