**Éric Zemmour’s mid-September 2026 confirmation of his 2027 candidacy has anchored trader expectations for the Reconquête nomination.** On BFMTV in mid-September, the party president explicitly declared he would run, earlier than his prior “before December” timeline, and closed the door on Sarah Knafo as the standard-bearer by describing himself as Reconquête’s “natural candidate.” Knafo, the party’s MEP and vice-president, has repeatedly echoed this stance in interviews and her book launch, stating she is not a candidate and positioning Zemmour as the clear choice while focusing her own visibility on economic and fiscal issues. This sequence of statements has reduced uncertainty around internal party dynamics and shifted focus to Zemmour’s established platform on immigration, identity, and authority. With roughly a year remaining before the first round, no comparable competing claim has emerged within Reconquête, and Knafo’s public activities have remained aligned with supporting his bid rather than advancing her own. The resulting market pricing reflects the absence of viable internal challengers and the clarity provided by the leader’s direct announcement.