**Zhang Youxia, the former senior vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, was placed under investigation in January 2026 for “serious violations of discipline and law,” a standard euphemism for corruption and related offenses.** This followed a broad military purge that removed multiple top PLA officers, including former defense ministers who later received suspended death sentences (typically converted to life imprisonment) in May 2026. As of August 2026, no public trial, formal charges, or sentencing has been announced for Zhang. Chinese authorities have not disclosed a timeline, and high-level cases often involve lengthy internal party reviews before any judicial outcome. Traders assign an 89.5% probability to “No” (no prison sentence before 2027) because the process remains in the investigative phase seven months after his removal, with no verifiable movement toward a court verdict or custodial sentence within the 2026 calendar year. This reflects the opaque, multi-stage nature of elite disciplinary proceedings in China, where even prominent targets can face extended reviews or outcomes that stop short of immediate prison terms. No major new developments have accelerated the case since the initial purge.