Xi Jinping and Peng Liyuan have maintained a visible public partnership since their 1987 marriage, with recent joint appearances during 2026 state visits and summits underscoring continued stability and no announcements of discord. Chinese political norms emphasize family harmony as part of regime image management, while state media portrayals and Peng's ongoing official roles as first lady further align with trader expectations of continuity through 2026. The 98.9% implied probability on no divorce reflects this established pattern and institutional controls over leadership narratives. Even with such consensus, a sudden health-related incapacity or major internal upheaval could theoretically introduce uncertainty, though verifiable developments show no indicators of either.