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Politik·Rumah

Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?

icon for Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?
Politik·Rumah

Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?

8% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
8% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Republican majorities and recent legislative outcomes make passage of any bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30 highly unlikely.** In mid-July 2026, the House rejected an amendment by Rep. Thomas Massie to eliminate $3.3 billion in foreign military financing for Israel from the FY2027 State Department appropriations bill by a 314-104 vote, with only 103 Democrats supporting the cut and nearly all Republicans opposing it. The underlying appropriations measure passed along party lines and preserved the funding. Broader efforts, such as H.R. 3565 and the Block the Bombs Act, remain stalled without committee advancement or floor consideration. The House instead advanced the NDAA with provisions expanding U.S.-Israel defense technology cooperation, reflecting continued bipartisan backing for the existing security relationship under the current memorandum of understanding. With limited legislative days remaining before the deadline and no active vehicles or majority support for new restrictions, trader consensus aligns with the low probability of passage.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,957
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Republican majorities and recent legislative outcomes make passage of any bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30 highly unlikely.** In mid-July 2026, the House rejected an amendment by Rep. Thomas Massie to eliminate $3.3 billion in foreign military financing for Israel from the FY2027 State Department appropriations bill by a 314-104 vote, with only 103 Democrats supporting the cut and nearly all Republicans opposing it. The underlying appropriations measure passed along party lines and preserved the funding. Broader efforts, such as H.R. 3565 and the Block the Bombs Act, remain stalled without committee advancement or floor consideration. The House instead advanced the NDAA with provisions expanding U.S.-Israel defense technology cooperation, reflecting continued bipartisan backing for the existing security relationship under the current memorandum of understanding. With limited legislative days remaining before the deadline and no active vehicles or majority support for new restrictions, trader consensus aligns with the low probability of passage.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,957
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 8% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 8¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 8% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Jun 29, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" adalah 8% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 8% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.