Tesla’s persistent lack of progress on California regulatory approvals drives the 83.5% market-implied odds against a robotaxi launch by year-end. The company holds only an entry-level DMV permit requiring safety drivers and has submitted no applications for unsupervised testing or CPUC authorization for paid passenger service, while logging zero autonomous test miles in recent periods. State rules demand substantial supervised miles before advancing to driverless operations, a multi-step process that rivals have needed years to complete. With just months remaining, traders see little scope for the necessary filings, data thresholds, or approvals to materialize, despite Tesla’s supervised FSD expansions elsewhere and robotaxi activity in Texas.