Elevated geopolitical risks from the US-Iran conflict have driven sharp increases in war-risk insurance premiums to 7.5–12.5% of hull value per Hormuz transit, compressing visible tanker crossings to roughly 10% of pre-crisis norms and pushing Middle East crude exports toward alternative routes like Saudi pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah. By late September 2026, Kpler data showed seven-day average crude flows through the strait recovering to around 13–13.5 million barrels per day, near pre-war baselines on some measures, while Brent crude traded near $99–102 per barrel amid easing supply concerns. Tanker rates remain elevated due to rerouting and dark-ship activity, with market-implied odds reflecting trader assessments of sustained partial reopenings versus renewed attacks ahead of any resolution.