GameStop’s significantly smaller market capitalization relative to eBay, combined with eBay’s outright rejection of the $56 billion cash-and-stock proposal in May 2026, underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against an acquisition. Traders cite persistent doubts over GameStop’s ability to secure credible financing beyond its roughly $9.4 billion cash position and proposed debt commitments, alongside eBay’s stronger standalone performance and board resistance to governance and leverage risks. GameStop’s subsequent accumulation of a nearly 10% stake has not altered the consensus, as analysts view the bid as non-actionable. A shift would require either a successful proxy campaign, major new capital inflows, or unexpected eBay shareholder pressure that overcomes current execution and valuation hurdles.