Apple is testing DRAM from China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) for iPhones and MacBooks while lobbying the Trump administration for approval to source components amid an AI-driven global memory shortage. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s military blacklist, triggering national security reviews, potential licensing requirements for custom specs, and bipartisan congressional pushback against technology transfers. Recent reporting indicates any supply would likely target only China-market devices, with no confirmed commercial commitments or broad U.S. waivers as of mid-August 2026. These regulatory and geopolitical barriers, combined with pressure to favor established suppliers like Micron or Samsung, underpin traders’ 78.5% implied probability against purchases occurring this year.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui22% peluang
$15,536 Vol.
$15,536 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
22% peluang
$15,536 Vol.
$15,536 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple is testing DRAM from China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) for iPhones and MacBooks while lobbying the Trump administration for approval to source components amid an AI-driven global memory shortage. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s military blacklist, triggering national security reviews, potential licensing requirements for custom specs, and bipartisan congressional pushback against technology transfers. Recent reporting indicates any supply would likely target only China-market devices, with no confirmed commercial commitments or broad U.S. waivers as of mid-August 2026. These regulatory and geopolitical barriers, combined with pressure to favor established suppliers like Micron or Samsung, underpin traders’ 78.5% implied probability against purchases occurring this year.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$15,536Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple is testing DRAM from China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) for iPhones and MacBooks while lobbying the Trump administration for approval to source components amid an AI-driven global memory shortage. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s military blacklist, triggering national security reviews, potential licensing requirements for custom specs, and bipartisan congressional pushback against technology transfers. Recent reporting indicates any supply would likely target only China-market devices, with no confirmed commercial commitments or broad U.S. waivers as of mid-August 2026. These regulatory and geopolitical barriers, combined with pressure to favor established suppliers like Micron or Samsung, underpin traders’ 78.5% implied probability against purchases occurring this year.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$15,536Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple is testing DRAM from China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) for iPhones and MacBooks while lobbying the Trump administration for approval to source components amid an AI-driven global memory shortage. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s military blacklist, triggering national security reviews, potential licensing requirements for custom specs, and bipartisan congressional pushback against technology transfers. Recent reporting indicates any supply would likely target only China-market devices, with no confirmed commercial commitments or broad U.S. waivers as of mid-August 2026. These regulatory and geopolitical barriers, combined with pressure to favor established suppliers like Micron or Samsung, underpin traders’ 78.5% implied probability against purchases occurring this year.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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