The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook from NOAA and Colorado State University forms the core driver behind the 87.5% market-implied probability of no Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. Updated August forecasts project just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5) for the full June–November period, reflecting only two early tropical storms so far and the likely influence of El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Category 5 status requires sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, an outcome that remains statistically rare even in active seasons; only five such direct U.S. landfalls have occurred since 1851. With the season more than halfway through and model consensus favoring subdued activity through November, traders see limited windows for the rapid strengthening and precise steering needed for a Category 5 strike.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
12% peluang
$139,188 Vol.
$139,188 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
12% peluang
$139,188 Vol.
$139,188 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook from NOAA and Colorado State University forms the core driver behind the 87.5% market-implied probability of no Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. Updated August forecasts project just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5) for the full June–November period, reflecting only two early tropical storms so far and the likely influence of El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Category 5 status requires sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, an outcome that remains statistically rare even in active seasons; only five such direct U.S. landfalls have occurred since 1851. With the season more than halfway through and model consensus favoring subdued activity through November, traders see limited windows for the rapid strengthening and precise steering needed for a Category 5 strike.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$139,188Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook from NOAA and Colorado State University forms the core driver behind the 87.5% market-implied probability of no Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. Updated August forecasts project just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5) for the full June–November period, reflecting only two early tropical storms so far and the likely influence of El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Category 5 status requires sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, an outcome that remains statistically rare even in active seasons; only five such direct U.S. landfalls have occurred since 1851. With the season more than halfway through and model consensus favoring subdued activity through November, traders see limited windows for the rapid strengthening and precise steering needed for a Category 5 strike.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$139,188Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook from NOAA and Colorado State University forms the core driver behind the 87.5% market-implied probability of no Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. Updated August forecasts project just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5) for the full June–November period, reflecting only two early tropical storms so far and the likely influence of El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Category 5 status requires sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, an outcome that remains statistically rare even in active seasons; only five such direct U.S. landfalls have occurred since 1851. With the season more than halfway through and model consensus favoring subdued activity through November, traders see limited windows for the rapid strengthening and precise steering needed for a Category 5 strike.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan