Below-normal activity dominates the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with NOAA and Colorado State University forecasting just 0-2 major hurricanes amid a developing El Niño that boosts vertical wind shear and suppresses intensification. Through mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed with zero hurricanes, well below historical norms. These conditions sharply reduce the chance of a Category 4 system (130+ mph winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) organizing and tracking toward U.S. landfall before the season ends November 30. Updated model runs and early-season observations reinforce trader consensus favoring the 84% implied probability of no such event.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16% peluang
$340,056 Vol.
$340,056 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
16% peluang
$340,056 Vol.
$340,056 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-normal activity dominates the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with NOAA and Colorado State University forecasting just 0-2 major hurricanes amid a developing El Niño that boosts vertical wind shear and suppresses intensification. Through mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed with zero hurricanes, well below historical norms. These conditions sharply reduce the chance of a Category 4 system (130+ mph winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) organizing and tracking toward U.S. landfall before the season ends November 30. Updated model runs and early-season observations reinforce trader consensus favoring the 84% implied probability of no such event.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$340,056Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-normal activity dominates the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with NOAA and Colorado State University forecasting just 0-2 major hurricanes amid a developing El Niño that boosts vertical wind shear and suppresses intensification. Through mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed with zero hurricanes, well below historical norms. These conditions sharply reduce the chance of a Category 4 system (130+ mph winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) organizing and tracking toward U.S. landfall before the season ends November 30. Updated model runs and early-season observations reinforce trader consensus favoring the 84% implied probability of no such event.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$340,056Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Below-normal activity dominates the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with NOAA and Colorado State University forecasting just 0-2 major hurricanes amid a developing El Niño that boosts vertical wind shear and suppresses intensification. Through mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed with zero hurricanes, well below historical norms. These conditions sharply reduce the chance of a Category 4 system (130+ mph winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) organizing and tracking toward U.S. landfall before the season ends November 30. Updated model runs and early-season observations reinforce trader consensus favoring the 84% implied probability of no such event.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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