US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which outlined a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and regional security after earlier conflict. High-level rounds in Switzerland that month, involving US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with Qatari and Pakistani mediation, produced a roadmap but yielded no lasting agreement as violations, mutual accusations, and threats from President Trump escalated tensions. As of early September 2026, Iran has urged compliance with the interim deal while Washington signals openness to renewed diplomacy only under stricter conditions; no new senior-level rounds have materialized amid disputes over Lebanon and inspections. Trader focus centers on whether mediators can revive formal negotiations before year-end or if persistent deadlock keeps participation probabilities low.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$396,699 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Steve Witkoff
32%
Abbas Araghchi
28%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
27%
Jared Kushner
27%
J.D. Vance
25%
Kazem Gharibabadi
24%
Ishaq Dar
18%
Nick Stewart
18%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
18%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
17%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
12%
Mohammed bin Salman
12%
Rafael Grossi
11%
Masoud Pezeshkian
10%
Marco Rubio
7%
Esmail Qaani
6%
Donald Trump
6%
Pete Hegseth
5%
Ahmad Vahidi
4%
Mojtaba Khamenei
4%
$396,699 Vol.
Steve Witkoff
$26,232 Vol.
32%
Abbas Araghchi
$9,176 Vol.
28%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$17,139 Vol.
27%
Jared Kushner
$22,322 Vol.
27%
J.D. Vance
$27,350 Vol.
25%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$16,625 Vol.
24%
Ishaq Dar
$23,360 Vol.
18%
Nick Stewart
$12,950 Vol.
18%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$17,270 Vol.
18%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$31,077 Vol.
17%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$40,153 Vol.
12%
Mohammed bin Salman
$5,526 Vol.
12%
Rafael Grossi
$32,194 Vol.
11%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$24,252 Vol.
10%
Marco Rubio
$13,732 Vol.
7%
Esmail Qaani
$11,490 Vol.
6%
Donald Trump
$9,179 Vol.
6%
Pete Hegseth
$20,123 Vol.
5%
Ahmad Vahidi
$14,361 Vol.
4%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$22,187 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which outlined a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and regional security after earlier conflict. High-level rounds in Switzerland that month, involving US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with Qatari and Pakistani mediation, produced a roadmap but yielded no lasting agreement as violations, mutual accusations, and threats from President Trump escalated tensions. As of early September 2026, Iran has urged compliance with the interim deal while Washington signals openness to renewed diplomacy only under stricter conditions; no new senior-level rounds have materialized amid disputes over Lebanon and inspections. Trader focus centers on whether mediators can revive formal negotiations before year-end or if persistent deadlock keeps participation probabilities low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$396,699Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which outlined a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and regional security after earlier conflict. High-level rounds in Switzerland that month, involving US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with Qatari and Pakistani mediation, produced a roadmap but yielded no lasting agreement as violations, mutual accusations, and threats from President Trump escalated tensions. As of early September 2026, Iran has urged compliance with the interim deal while Washington signals openness to renewed diplomacy only under stricter conditions; no new senior-level rounds have materialized amid disputes over Lebanon and inspections. Trader focus centers on whether mediators can revive formal negotiations before year-end or if persistent deadlock keeps participation probabilities low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$396,699Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which outlined a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and regional security after earlier conflict. High-level rounds in Switzerland that month, involving US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with Qatari and Pakistani mediation, produced a roadmap but yielded no lasting agreement as violations, mutual accusations, and threats from President Trump escalated tensions. As of early September 2026, Iran has urged compliance with the interim deal while Washington signals openness to renewed diplomacy only under stricter conditions; no new senior-level rounds have materialized amid disputes over Lebanon and inspections. Trader focus centers on whether mediators can revive formal negotiations before year-end or if persistent deadlock keeps participation probabilities low.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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