**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have severely restricted Strait of Hormuz transits to roughly 10% of normal volumes, with US Navy destroyers and coordination efforts enabling limited southern-corridor passages amid Iranian permit requirements and attacks on tankers.** Recent weeks saw near-daily strikes on vessels, pushing weekly attack counts to the highest since the conflict began and sustaining elevated maritime risk premiums. This dynamic supports strong market-implied odds for US naval presence through year-end, while India and Pakistan have deployed destroyers and frigates for Gulf of Oman escorts under operations like India’s Urja Suraksha. Oil prices above $100 per barrel reflect supply disruptions from the chokepoint that normally handles about one-fifth of global seaborne crude, with tanker rates and insurance costs reflecting persistent uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include potential US carrier arrivals, midterm election timing, and any de-escalation talks that could alter naval transit patterns before December 31. Trader sentiment prices in these geopolitical and energy-market linkages rather than guaranteed outcomes.