Trader consensus on Polymarket has consolidated around Anthropic holding the third-best large language model as of end of May, with market-implied odds near 100 percent. This positioning stems from May 2026 LLM leaderboards and benchmarks such as GPQA Diamond, SWE-bench Verified, and Arena Elo, where OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Pro and GPT-5.5 variants occupy the top two spots while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 or 4.8 consistently ranks third across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Google’s Gemini 3 series trails in these aggregates. The strong agreement reflects traders’ assessment of verified capability demonstrations and third-party evaluations rather than unconfirmed leaks. A late-May model release, benchmark revision, or undisclosed internal advance from Google could still alter the ordering before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 100.0%
Alibaba <1%
Baidu <1%
Moonshot <1%
$224,152 Vol.
$224,152 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
Yes
Alibaba
No
Baidu
No
Moonshot
No
Z.ai
No
Meituan
No
No
ByteDance
No
Meta
No
OpenAI
No
xAI
No
Amazon
No
Mistral
No
DeepSeek
No
Microsoft
No
Anthropic 100.0%
Alibaba <1%
Baidu <1%
Moonshot <1%
$224,152 Vol.
$224,152 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$55,290 Vol.
Yes
Alibaba
$13,836 Vol.
No
Baidu
$9,000 Vol.
No
Moonshot
$3,744 Vol.
No
Z.ai
$5,763 Vol.
No
Meituan
$5,876 Vol.
No
$46,330 Vol.
No
ByteDance
$11,150 Vol.
No
Meta
$13,241 Vol.
No
OpenAI
$21,078 Vol.
No
xAI
$12,264 Vol.
No
Amazon
$2,361 Vol.
No
Mistral
$4,613 Vol.
No
DeepSeek
$11,951 Vol.
No
Microsoft
$7,655 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has consolidated around Anthropic holding the third-best large language model as of end of May, with market-implied odds near 100 percent. This positioning stems from May 2026 LLM leaderboards and benchmarks such as GPQA Diamond, SWE-bench Verified, and Arena Elo, where OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Pro and GPT-5.5 variants occupy the top two spots while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 or 4.8 consistently ranks third across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Google’s Gemini 3 series trails in these aggregates. The strong agreement reflects traders’ assessment of verified capability demonstrations and third-party evaluations rather than unconfirmed leaks. A late-May model release, benchmark revision, or undisclosed internal advance from Google could still alter the ordering before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$224,152Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: Yes
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: Yes
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has consolidated around Anthropic holding the third-best large language model as of end of May, with market-implied odds near 100 percent. This positioning stems from May 2026 LLM leaderboards and benchmarks such as GPQA Diamond, SWE-bench Verified, and Arena Elo, where OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Pro and GPT-5.5 variants occupy the top two spots while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 or 4.8 consistently ranks third across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Google’s Gemini 3 series trails in these aggregates. The strong agreement reflects traders’ assessment of verified capability demonstrations and third-party evaluations rather than unconfirmed leaks. A late-May model release, benchmark revision, or undisclosed internal advance from Google could still alter the ordering before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$224,152Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: Yes
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket has consolidated around Anthropic holding the third-best large language model as of end of May, with market-implied odds near 100 percent. This positioning stems from May 2026 LLM leaderboards and benchmarks such as GPQA Diamond, SWE-bench Verified, and Arena Elo, where OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Pro and GPT-5.5 variants occupy the top two spots while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 or 4.8 consistently ranks third across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Google’s Gemini 3 series trails in these aggregates. The strong agreement reflects traders’ assessment of verified capability demonstrations and third-party evaluations rather than unconfirmed leaks. A late-May model release, benchmark revision, or undisclosed internal advance from Google could still alter the ordering before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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