Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models drive the 87.5% implied probability through native synchronized audio generation, strong prompt adherence, 4K support, and consistent leadership in human preference benchmarks for realistic motion and coherence. These capabilities, refined through 2025–2026 updates and integrated into Gemini and Flow tools, have outpaced competitors in production workflows and side-by-side evaluations. OpenAI's Sora faces an API shutdown on September 24, 2026, while Chinese models like Kling 3.0 and ByteDance Seedance lead certain visual arenas but trail on integrated audio and overall trader consensus. With the market resolving at end of September, Google's ecosystem advantages and recent refinements anchor the current positioning amid a rapidly evolving field.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiGoogle 88%
Runway 4.7%
Luma AI 3.5%
ByteDance 1.5%
$20,775 Vol.
$20,775 Vol.

88%

Runway
5%

Luma AI
4%

ByteDance
1%

MiniMax
1%

KlingAI
1%

Pika
1%

Pixverse
1%

Pruna
1%

OpenAI
1%

Kandinsky
<1%

Tencent
<1%

Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
<1%

Lightricks
<1%

Genmo AI
<1%

SpaceXAI
<1%

Meta
<1%
Google 88%
Runway 4.7%
Luma AI 3.5%
ByteDance 1.5%
$20,775 Vol.
$20,775 Vol.

88%

Runway
5%

Luma AI
4%

ByteDance
1%

MiniMax
1%

KlingAI
1%

Pika
1%

Pixverse
1%

Pruna
1%

OpenAI
1%

Kandinsky
<1%

Tencent
<1%

Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
<1%

Lightricks
<1%

Genmo AI
<1%

SpaceXAI
<1%

Meta
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models drive the 87.5% implied probability through native synchronized audio generation, strong prompt adherence, 4K support, and consistent leadership in human preference benchmarks for realistic motion and coherence. These capabilities, refined through 2025–2026 updates and integrated into Gemini and Flow tools, have outpaced competitors in production workflows and side-by-side evaluations. OpenAI's Sora faces an API shutdown on September 24, 2026, while Chinese models like Kling 3.0 and ByteDance Seedance lead certain visual arenas but trail on integrated audio and overall trader consensus. With the market resolving at end of September, Google's ecosystem advantages and recent refinements anchor the current positioning amid a rapidly evolving field.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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