Anthropic's Claude models, particularly recent Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 iterations, drive the 82% market-implied probability by consistently leading Code Arena WebDev leaderboards on agentic frontend tasks, multi-step reasoning, and real-world web development benchmarks. Traders cite superior performance in complex coding workflows, long-context handling, and tool use relative to rivals, with Anthropic models occupying top Elo scores amid ongoing iterations. OpenAI's 17% reflects competitive but trailing results from GPT-5.6 variants and recent Astra claims, while lower odds for Alibaba, Google, Moonshot, and others align with their mid-tier or specialized placements behind Anthropic on the same arena metrics. With resolution at month-end, any final model drops or benchmark shifts remain the key near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 82%
OpenAI 17.4%
Alibaba <1%
Google <1%
$96,650 Vol.
$96,650 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
82%
OpenAI
17%
Alibaba
1%
1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 82%
OpenAI 17.4%
Alibaba <1%
Google <1%
$96,650 Vol.
$96,650 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$43,221 Vol.
82%
OpenAI
$9,711 Vol.
17%
Alibaba
$5,745 Vol.
1%
$3,564 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$18,277 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,804 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$3,189 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$2,204 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$468 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$559 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$657 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,690 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$560 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$571 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$641 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$789 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude models, particularly recent Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 iterations, drive the 82% market-implied probability by consistently leading Code Arena WebDev leaderboards on agentic frontend tasks, multi-step reasoning, and real-world web development benchmarks. Traders cite superior performance in complex coding workflows, long-context handling, and tool use relative to rivals, with Anthropic models occupying top Elo scores amid ongoing iterations. OpenAI's 17% reflects competitive but trailing results from GPT-5.6 variants and recent Astra claims, while lower odds for Alibaba, Google, Moonshot, and others align with their mid-tier or specialized placements behind Anthropic on the same arena metrics. With resolution at month-end, any final model drops or benchmark shifts remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ET
Volume
$96,650Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdevResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude models, particularly recent Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 iterations, drive the 82% market-implied probability by consistently leading Code Arena WebDev leaderboards on agentic frontend tasks, multi-step reasoning, and real-world web development benchmarks. Traders cite superior performance in complex coding workflows, long-context handling, and tool use relative to rivals, with Anthropic models occupying top Elo scores amid ongoing iterations. OpenAI's 17% reflects competitive but trailing results from GPT-5.6 variants and recent Astra claims, while lower odds for Alibaba, Google, Moonshot, and others align with their mid-tier or specialized placements behind Anthropic on the same arena metrics. With resolution at month-end, any final model drops or benchmark shifts remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$96,650Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdevResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude models, particularly recent Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 iterations, drive the 82% market-implied probability by consistently leading Code Arena WebDev leaderboards on agentic frontend tasks, multi-step reasoning, and real-world web development benchmarks. Traders cite superior performance in complex coding workflows, long-context handling, and tool use relative to rivals, with Anthropic models occupying top Elo scores amid ongoing iterations. OpenAI's 17% reflects competitive but trailing results from GPT-5.6 variants and recent Astra claims, while lower odds for Alibaba, Google, Moonshot, and others align with their mid-tier or specialized placements behind Anthropic on the same arena metrics. With resolution at month-end, any final model drops or benchmark shifts remain the key near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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