Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently anchors the 89.5% market-implied odds by posting the highest overall LiveBench scores in early September 2026 snapshots, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and o3 variants across the benchmark’s seven-category mean. The contamination-resistant design of LiveBench, which refreshes questions monthly, rewards consistent gains in reasoning, coding, and data analysis where Anthropic’s latest large language model has demonstrated measurable edges. OpenAI remains the nearest challenger at 6.3% odds, but recent releases have not closed the gap enough to shift trader consensus ahead of the September 30 resolution. With only weeks remaining, any new high-effort configuration or incremental capability update from OpenAI, Google, or Meta could narrow margins, though historical release cadence and current leaderboard positioning support the strong lead for Anthropic.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 90%
OpenAI 6.1%
SpaceXAI <1%
Meta <1%
$56,729 Vol.
$56,729 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
90%
OpenAI
6%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 90%
OpenAI 6.1%
SpaceXAI <1%
Meta <1%
$56,729 Vol.
$56,729 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$16,923 Vol.
90%
OpenAI
$13,459 Vol.
6%
SpaceXAI
$2,546 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$2,051 Vol.
<1%
$2,569 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$2,207 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$2,041 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$706 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,337 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$989 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$737 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$836 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$681 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$790 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$722 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,233 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$2,467 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,108 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$806 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$488 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,031 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently anchors the 89.5% market-implied odds by posting the highest overall LiveBench scores in early September 2026 snapshots, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and o3 variants across the benchmark’s seven-category mean. The contamination-resistant design of LiveBench, which refreshes questions monthly, rewards consistent gains in reasoning, coding, and data analysis where Anthropic’s latest large language model has demonstrated measurable edges. OpenAI remains the nearest challenger at 6.3% odds, but recent releases have not closed the gap enough to shift trader consensus ahead of the September 30 resolution. With only weeks remaining, any new high-effort configuration or incremental capability update from OpenAI, Google, or Meta could narrow margins, though historical release cadence and current leaderboard positioning support the strong lead for Anthropic.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$56,729Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently anchors the 89.5% market-implied odds by posting the highest overall LiveBench scores in early September 2026 snapshots, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and o3 variants across the benchmark’s seven-category mean. The contamination-resistant design of LiveBench, which refreshes questions monthly, rewards consistent gains in reasoning, coding, and data analysis where Anthropic’s latest large language model has demonstrated measurable edges. OpenAI remains the nearest challenger at 6.3% odds, but recent releases have not closed the gap enough to shift trader consensus ahead of the September 30 resolution. With only weeks remaining, any new high-effort configuration or incremental capability update from OpenAI, Google, or Meta could narrow margins, though historical release cadence and current leaderboard positioning support the strong lead for Anthropic.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$56,729Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently anchors the 89.5% market-implied odds by posting the highest overall LiveBench scores in early September 2026 snapshots, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and o3 variants across the benchmark’s seven-category mean. The contamination-resistant design of LiveBench, which refreshes questions monthly, rewards consistent gains in reasoning, coding, and data analysis where Anthropic’s latest large language model has demonstrated measurable edges. OpenAI remains the nearest challenger at 6.3% odds, but recent releases have not closed the gap enough to shift trader consensus ahead of the September 30 resolution. With only weeks remaining, any new high-effort configuration or incremental capability update from OpenAI, Google, or Meta could narrow margins, though historical release cadence and current leaderboard positioning support the strong lead for Anthropic.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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