Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds, as these models post leading scores on contamination-resistant coding tasks within LiveBench and related evaluations such as SWE-bench Pro. Traders view the short window to the end-of-October snapshot as favoring the incumbent, given Anthropic’s demonstrated edge in agentic coding and long-context software engineering benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other labs trail at single-digit probabilities because their latest updates have not yet closed the gap on LiveBench Coding specifically. A new high-scoring release or LiveBench question refresh favoring OpenAI or an open-weight contender before month-end remains the main realistic scenario that could narrow the lead.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 91%
OpenAI 5.8%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$21,280 Vol.
$21,280 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
91%
OpenAI
6%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 91%
OpenAI 5.8%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$21,280 Vol.
$21,280 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$9,291 Vol.
91%
OpenAI
$3,089 Vol.
6%
SpaceXAI
$1,081 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$657 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$553 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$499 Vol.
<1%
$546 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$484 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$398 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$355 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$310 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$395 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$507 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$468 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$410 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$363 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$454 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$364 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$297 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$334 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$426 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds, as these models post leading scores on contamination-resistant coding tasks within LiveBench and related evaluations such as SWE-bench Pro. Traders view the short window to the end-of-October snapshot as favoring the incumbent, given Anthropic’s demonstrated edge in agentic coding and long-context software engineering benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other labs trail at single-digit probabilities because their latest updates have not yet closed the gap on LiveBench Coding specifically. A new high-scoring release or LiveBench question refresh favoring OpenAI or an open-weight contender before month-end remains the main realistic scenario that could narrow the lead.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$21,280Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds, as these models post leading scores on contamination-resistant coding tasks within LiveBench and related evaluations such as SWE-bench Pro. Traders view the short window to the end-of-October snapshot as favoring the incumbent, given Anthropic’s demonstrated edge in agentic coding and long-context software engineering benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other labs trail at single-digit probabilities because their latest updates have not yet closed the gap on LiveBench Coding specifically. A new high-scoring release or LiveBench question refresh favoring OpenAI or an open-weight contender before month-end remains the main realistic scenario that could narrow the lead.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$21,280Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds, as these models post leading scores on contamination-resistant coding tasks within LiveBench and related evaluations such as SWE-bench Pro. Traders view the short window to the end-of-October snapshot as favoring the incumbent, given Anthropic’s demonstrated edge in agentic coding and long-context software engineering benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other labs trail at single-digit probabilities because their latest updates have not yet closed the gap on LiveBench Coding specifically. A new high-scoring release or LiveBench question refresh favoring OpenAI or an open-weight contender before month-end remains the main realistic scenario that could narrow the lead.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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