Anthropic’s dominant 91.5% implied probability stems from its September 2026 launches of retail AI agent blueprints and Claude Managed Agents, which deliver production-ready tool use, persistent memory, and multi-step orchestration on Claude models. These build on Claude Code and Claude Tag’s proven long-horizon coherence and coding benchmarks that outpace rivals in agentic evaluations. Traders see this as concrete evidence of superior agent capabilities ahead of the end-September cutoff. A major competitive release—such as OpenAI expanding its recent Agents API beta with breakthrough reliability or another lab demonstrating superior autonomous performance—could still shift sentiment before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 92%
OpenAI 6.3%
Google <1%
SpaceXAI <1%
$216,489 Vol.
$216,489 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
92%
OpenAI
6%
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 92%
OpenAI 6.3%
Google <1%
SpaceXAI <1%
$216,489 Vol.
$216,489 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$55,097 Vol.
92%
OpenAI
$40,960 Vol.
6%
$8,886 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$8,929 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$8,566 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$8,950 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$8,679 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$7,614 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$7,938 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$7,494 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$539 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$7,551 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$7,730 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$7,427 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$7,548 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$7,543 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$7,538 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$7,498 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s dominant 91.5% implied probability stems from its September 2026 launches of retail AI agent blueprints and Claude Managed Agents, which deliver production-ready tool use, persistent memory, and multi-step orchestration on Claude models. These build on Claude Code and Claude Tag’s proven long-horizon coherence and coding benchmarks that outpace rivals in agentic evaluations. Traders see this as concrete evidence of superior agent capabilities ahead of the end-September cutoff. A major competitive release—such as OpenAI expanding its recent Agents API beta with breakthrough reliability or another lab demonstrating superior autonomous performance—could still shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
Volume
$216,489Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s dominant 91.5% implied probability stems from its September 2026 launches of retail AI agent blueprints and Claude Managed Agents, which deliver production-ready tool use, persistent memory, and multi-step orchestration on Claude models. These build on Claude Code and Claude Tag’s proven long-horizon coherence and coding benchmarks that outpace rivals in agentic evaluations. Traders see this as concrete evidence of superior agent capabilities ahead of the end-September cutoff. A major competitive release—such as OpenAI expanding its recent Agents API beta with breakthrough reliability or another lab demonstrating superior autonomous performance—could still shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$216,489Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s dominant 91.5% implied probability stems from its September 2026 launches of retail AI agent blueprints and Claude Managed Agents, which deliver production-ready tool use, persistent memory, and multi-step orchestration on Claude models. These build on Claude Code and Claude Tag’s proven long-horizon coherence and coding benchmarks that outpace rivals in agentic evaluations. Traders see this as concrete evidence of superior agent capabilities ahead of the end-September cutoff. A major competitive release—such as OpenAI expanding its recent Agents API beta with breakthrough reliability or another lab demonstrating superior autonomous performance—could still shift sentiment before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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