Traders have converged on Anthropic at near-certain implied probability because its Claude Opus series, including the late-May update to Opus 4.8, posted dominant results on key benchmarks such as agentic coding tasks exceeding 80 percent on SWE-Bench while delivering strong multidisciplinary reasoning and safety metrics. This performance edge over competing large language models from Google and others solidified the lead in the final weeks of May. The outcome remains subject to the precise evaluation criteria at month-end, so an unexpected late benchmark shift or revision in resolution rules could still alter the result, though current trader positioning reflects overwhelming evidence from verified capability demonstrations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
Mistral <1%
Meituan <1%
$809,798 Vol.
$809,798 Vol.
May 31, 2026
No
Mistral
No
Meituan
No
Anthropic
Yes
OpenAI
No
ByteDance
No
Baidu
No
DeepSeek
No
Microsoft
No
Alibaba
No
Amazon
No
Meta
No
xAI
No
Moonshot
No
Z.ai
No
Anthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
Mistral <1%
Meituan <1%
$809,798 Vol.
$809,798 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$95,880 Vol.
No
Mistral
$28,712 Vol.
No
Meituan
$35,139 Vol.
No
Anthropic
$91,569 Vol.
Yes
OpenAI
$47,891 Vol.
No
ByteDance
$39,994 Vol.
No
Baidu
$40,096 Vol.
No
DeepSeek
$38,584 Vol.
No
Microsoft
$27,718 Vol.
No
Alibaba
$84,253 Vol.
No
Amazon
$31,179 Vol.
No
Meta
$110,701 Vol.
No
xAI
$70,253 Vol.
No
Moonshot
$30,960 Vol.
No
Z.ai
$36,868 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have converged on Anthropic at near-certain implied probability because its Claude Opus series, including the late-May update to Opus 4.8, posted dominant results on key benchmarks such as agentic coding tasks exceeding 80 percent on SWE-Bench while delivering strong multidisciplinary reasoning and safety metrics. This performance edge over competing large language models from Google and others solidified the lead in the final weeks of May. The outcome remains subject to the precise evaluation criteria at month-end, so an unexpected late benchmark shift or revision in resolution rules could still alter the result, though current trader positioning reflects overwhelming evidence from verified capability demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$809,798Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: Yes
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: Yes
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have converged on Anthropic at near-certain implied probability because its Claude Opus series, including the late-May update to Opus 4.8, posted dominant results on key benchmarks such as agentic coding tasks exceeding 80 percent on SWE-Bench while delivering strong multidisciplinary reasoning and safety metrics. This performance edge over competing large language models from Google and others solidified the lead in the final weeks of May. The outcome remains subject to the precise evaluation criteria at month-end, so an unexpected late benchmark shift or revision in resolution rules could still alter the result, though current trader positioning reflects overwhelming evidence from verified capability demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$809,798Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: Yes
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: Yes
Traders have converged on Anthropic at near-certain implied probability because its Claude Opus series, including the late-May update to Opus 4.8, posted dominant results on key benchmarks such as agentic coding tasks exceeding 80 percent on SWE-Bench while delivering strong multidisciplinary reasoning and safety metrics. This performance edge over competing large language models from Google and others solidified the lead in the final weeks of May. The outcome remains subject to the precise evaluation criteria at month-end, so an unexpected late benchmark shift or revision in resolution rules could still alter the result, though current trader positioning reflects overwhelming evidence from verified capability demonstrations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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