Anthropic holds overwhelming trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for the best large language model by end of August 2026, driven by Claude Opus 5's July 24 release that leads Artificial Analysis benchmarks with a 63 Intelligence Index score and tops agentic and coding evaluations on Arena and GDPval-AA v2. This positions Anthropic ahead of recent competitors, including OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 61 and the August 12 Grok 4.6 refresh from SpaceXAI, which tied third but did not displace the leader. Strong demonstrated capabilities in long-horizon agentic workflows and production coding reinforce the edge. A late-month breakthrough release or post-training update from OpenAI, Google, or xAI could narrow the gap, though no such shift has materialized in the first half of August.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 95%
OpenAI 3.4%
Google 1.7%
DeepSeek <1%
$1,648,605 Vol.
$1,648,605 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
95%
OpenAI
3%
2%
DeepSeek
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 95%
OpenAI 3.4%
Google 1.7%
DeepSeek <1%
$1,648,605 Vol.
$1,648,605 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$346,060 Vol.
95%
OpenAI
$145,811 Vol.
3%
$126,291 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$192,431 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$134,728 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$138,087 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$130,772 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$125,126 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$107,002 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$15,032 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$11,009 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$9,778 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$88,729 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$11,465 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$14,084 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$23,168 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$4,351 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$3,803 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$4,363 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$4,993 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$11,524 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds overwhelming trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for the best large language model by end of August 2026, driven by Claude Opus 5's July 24 release that leads Artificial Analysis benchmarks with a 63 Intelligence Index score and tops agentic and coding evaluations on Arena and GDPval-AA v2. This positions Anthropic ahead of recent competitors, including OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 61 and the August 12 Grok 4.6 refresh from SpaceXAI, which tied third but did not displace the leader. Strong demonstrated capabilities in long-horizon agentic workflows and production coding reinforce the edge. A late-month breakthrough release or post-training update from OpenAI, Google, or xAI could narrow the gap, though no such shift has materialized in the first half of August.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,648,605Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds overwhelming trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for the best large language model by end of August 2026, driven by Claude Opus 5's July 24 release that leads Artificial Analysis benchmarks with a 63 Intelligence Index score and tops agentic and coding evaluations on Arena and GDPval-AA v2. This positions Anthropic ahead of recent competitors, including OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 61 and the August 12 Grok 4.6 refresh from SpaceXAI, which tied third but did not displace the leader. Strong demonstrated capabilities in long-horizon agentic workflows and production coding reinforce the edge. A late-month breakthrough release or post-training update from OpenAI, Google, or xAI could narrow the gap, though no such shift has materialized in the first half of August.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,648,605Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds overwhelming trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for the best large language model by end of August 2026, driven by Claude Opus 5's July 24 release that leads Artificial Analysis benchmarks with a 63 Intelligence Index score and tops agentic and coding evaluations on Arena and GDPval-AA v2. This positions Anthropic ahead of recent competitors, including OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 61 and the August 12 Grok 4.6 refresh from SpaceXAI, which tied third but did not displace the leader. Strong demonstrated capabilities in long-horizon agentic workflows and production coding reinforce the edge. A late-month breakthrough release or post-training update from OpenAI, Google, or xAI could narrow the gap, though no such shift has materialized in the first half of August.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan