Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and related Fable 5 / Mythos 5 variants currently lead multiple independent leaderboards on intelligence indices, coding arenas, and reasoning benchmarks, giving the company overwhelming market-implied odds of 94.8% for the top spot at month-end. Strong recent performance on agentic tasks, long-context handling, and specialized evaluations has solidified trader consensus around its frontier capabilities. With resolution only weeks away, a surprise model drop from OpenAI or Google that posts superior results on the controlling style benchmark could still shift outcomes, though no such release has been confirmed in credible reporting. Traders are weighting demonstrated benchmark leadership and deployment momentum over speculative future announcements.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 94.8%
OpenAI 4.1%
Google 1.8%
SpaceXAI 1.3%
$23,442 Vol.
$23,442 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
95%
OpenAI
4%
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Bytedance
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 94.8%
OpenAI 4.1%
Google 1.8%
SpaceXAI 1.3%
$23,442 Vol.
$23,442 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$5,001 Vol.
95%
OpenAI
$2,838 Vol.
4%
$2,046 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$1,224 Vol.
1%
Bytedance
$608 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,180 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$718 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$690 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$721 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$1,067 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$802 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,069 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$459 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$908 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$330 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$939 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$330 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$774 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$344 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$891 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$505 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and related Fable 5 / Mythos 5 variants currently lead multiple independent leaderboards on intelligence indices, coding arenas, and reasoning benchmarks, giving the company overwhelming market-implied odds of 94.8% for the top spot at month-end. Strong recent performance on agentic tasks, long-context handling, and specialized evaluations has solidified trader consensus around its frontier capabilities. With resolution only weeks away, a surprise model drop from OpenAI or Google that posts superior results on the controlling style benchmark could still shift outcomes, though no such release has been confirmed in credible reporting. Traders are weighting demonstrated benchmark leadership and deployment momentum over speculative future announcements.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$23,442Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and related Fable 5 / Mythos 5 variants currently lead multiple independent leaderboards on intelligence indices, coding arenas, and reasoning benchmarks, giving the company overwhelming market-implied odds of 94.8% for the top spot at month-end. Strong recent performance on agentic tasks, long-context handling, and specialized evaluations has solidified trader consensus around its frontier capabilities. With resolution only weeks away, a surprise model drop from OpenAI or Google that posts superior results on the controlling style benchmark could still shift outcomes, though no such release has been confirmed in credible reporting. Traders are weighting demonstrated benchmark leadership and deployment momentum over speculative future announcements.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$23,442Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and related Fable 5 / Mythos 5 variants currently lead multiple independent leaderboards on intelligence indices, coding arenas, and reasoning benchmarks, giving the company overwhelming market-implied odds of 94.8% for the top spot at month-end. Strong recent performance on agentic tasks, long-context handling, and specialized evaluations has solidified trader consensus around its frontier capabilities. With resolution only weeks away, a surprise model drop from OpenAI or Google that posts superior results on the controlling style benchmark could still shift outcomes, though no such release has been confirmed in credible reporting. Traders are weighting demonstrated benchmark leadership and deployment momentum over speculative future announcements.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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